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The Gas Electric Hybrid; Myth or Megamileage? When gas prices shot up recently, and filling up my 16 mpg (observed city mpg) Tacoma 4x4 got a bit pricey, I found myself eyeballing the new Toyota Prius hybrid automobile. I even started drooling. The Prius EPA gas mileage estimates said the Prius could get 51mpg highway, and 60mpg in the city, for a combined average of 55mpg! "Why, shucks, this car can pay for itself in several years!" I thought. I ran the numbers. I drive almost exactly 10,000 miles a year. At current gas prices for premium, with a combined gas mileage average of exactly 20mpg (yes, I really checked my mileage) between my '99 Tacoma and my trusty '84 Toyota 4cyl 2wd pick up. That came out to around $1,200 bucks a year for gas. If Toyota was even close on the Prius mileage estimates, I could trim my gas bill to around $500 a year. That's a $700 annual savings. Hmmm...I went for a test drive. You can't get something for nothing. The 2004 Prius I test drove averaged a paltry 36.8 mpg on a 2 mile city loop. Only once did the electric motor actually power the car without the gas engine running; when I was driving at about 10mph in the parking lot -- and the instant I put the accelerator down --even modestly -- the gas engine kicked in. The salesman admitted that, as per his experiences, it was difficult to get the car to accelerate without the gas engine jumping into action. He also said the relatively "poor" gas mileage we experienced (well, 36.8mpg ain't shabby city mileage for a car -- but far below the Prius sticker claims) was because we sat in the car a while, talking, playing with the controls, not moving, and running the air conditioner. And the battery, he said, was also a bit low. Ok. But these are real world conditions! He said most times he took people on test drives, the average came out around 40mpg. OK. But that's a far cry from the 51 to 60mpg claims that have people impulse-buying these cars! I asked him what the word on the street is about the real Prius mileage. If it sounds too good to be true, it usually isn't true. He said that all the reports he's seen suggest the Prius typically achieves gas mileage only in the mid to high 40's. The car, as he and certain professional reviewers have noticed, is especially sensitive to head-winds, crosswinds, hills and accessory power drain. It other words, in real world conditions, it's a wimp. And it doesn't run particularly efficiently on freeways. He suggested this was a big factor for us California drivers, who rely on air conditioning use, and experience much windy, sometimes mountainous, freeway driving. I suggested that maybe I'd be better off buying an Echo or Corolla for a lot less money, and getting reasonably similar gas mileage averages. He said, "You're one of the few people I've talked to about the Prius who brings common sense to the bargaining table. Most people don't think -- they throw money at these things because they believe the sticker mileage estimates." Then he let out a sigh, looked over his shoulder and confessed to me in a whisper; "I'm about to buy a new car, and I've decided not to buy a Prius. If you're looking ten or so years out, and you factor in the car's price, then something like a Corolla will save you more money than the Prius." At 40mpg highway estimated, The Corolla is currently Toyota's third best fuel efficient vehicle (second place is currently held by the Echo; 43mpg highway estimated -- and actual owner reports of mid 30's to low 40s on the highway). But we both acknowledged that there is a benefit to buying a Prius -- helping the environment on your dime. And for those people who were already in the market for a new ride and had budgeted in the Prius price range, it's a win-win situation. (unless you stop to consider the leather and other fancy features another car in that price range can give you -- Toyota's cloth seats and plastic interiors are sometimes another trade-off in the big equation) He then swiveled his flatscreen monitor around, logged onto the internet, and turned me onto a spate of websites where Prius owners were comparing notes, and publishing their real-world gas mileage reports. So far, every example I've seen --including a MotorTrend test drive around the California freeways --has not experienced mileage consistently above the mid 40s. The MotorTrend test only averaged 41.2 mpg. Lifetime averages -- even an Edmund.com long term use Prius review -- tend to hover around the low 40's. One guy we found on the Internet has two Prius's, and has a lifetime gas mileage on both vehicles of 47mpg. And yet like most Prius owners, he sings high praises to the Prius. And why not? Forty to forty seven miles per gallon ain't bad for a car -- it's damned good! But Volkswagen was achieving true 40mpg in the 1980's with the diesel Rabbit! (and still is with their TDI diesel Golf model!) OK But the diesel Rabbit was also a noxious environmental nightmare. And you can't buy diesel passenger cars in California -- yet**. Money talks; pollution walks. I want to help the environment, but I also have to pay rent and put food in the 'fridge. So I ran the numbers again -- this time I factored in the cost of the vehicles. Factor in that, your annual fuel bill, and project it all over 10 years... guess what? The Toyota Echo came out the winner, hands down -- even if it only gets gas mileage in the low 30's, and even if you project out 20 years. The several thousand dollar purchase price difference easily defeats the gas mileage savings with the costly Prius. Ten or twenty years later if I'm driving the Echo or a similarly priced and performing car, I'm likely to have several thousand dollars unspent. If you want to broaden the gap further, buy an inexpensive used Echo or other economy sedan. (Right now used Prius's are selling for new prices!). And then there's the worry about the Prius's $4,000 NiMh battery -- maybe the primary reason for the Prius's higher price tag (and a sticky subject if you want to get into HAZMAT and "upstream pollution" arguments). They think it will be good for 150,000 miles, and they offer an 8 year 100,000 mile warranty on the battery and other Hybrid components. But I honestly wonder what the battery's capacity will be in 50,000 miles (well, we've all seen what happens to our NiMh cell phone batteries over time...) and how that will affect gas mileage on the Prius. It's currently estimated that the cost for the battery will drop to around $1,000 in eight years. OK Maybe then I'll buy a hybrid. Maybe then they'll achieve real-world mileage as advertised. Maybe then the EPA test will reflect real-word conditions. Maybe then the Prius will live-up the the hype. Then again, maybe then diesel's will have become EPA friendly. Then again, I could just buy a motorcycle today that gets 70mpg. - John Starr, 3/27/2004 * There are exceptions; my 1999 Tacoma SR5 (Xtracab, V6, 4x4, standard transmission) truck has an EPA rating of 16 mpg city, 19 mpg highway. Guess what? For my style of driving, it's dead on accurate! In fact, I have been able to better the estimate a bit and get 21.5 mpg on the freeway if I slow to 60mph or less. These are not "guestimates"; I carefully checked and re-checked my mileage many times. ** According to this article on Edmund.com, this may change in a few years with the introduction of low sulfur diesel fuel and advanced engineering on the already highly efficient diesel engine.
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